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NOVEMBER 2,  2021

HAVE YOU HEARD? – OVERNIGHT:  Of course you have.  The Atlanta Braves won the World Series, and Glenn Youngkin was elected governor of Virginia. 

Youngkin's victory is a political earthquake, a Republican victory in a state that had been reliably Democratic for a decade.  I was eager to see how he would accept his victory, which was declared by several news organizations.  He was terrific, gracious yet strong, with a natural appeal to his audience.  And he knows how to go after the opposition without sounding cruel.  I think a star was born.

Youngkin currently has a two-point lead over Terry McAuliffe, with 97 percent of the vote counted.  Macauliffe has not yet conceded, which raises the question as to whether he'll contest the election.  We may know that later today.  I think a challenge would fizzle, though.  Enthusiasm for Youngkin is high, and no irregularities have thus far been noted or charged.

Youngkin brings with him a lieutenant governor and attorney general who are right out of central casting...for the Democratic Party.  These two demonstrate how the GOP is changing.  The Dems do not have exclusive control over minorities.   The new lieutenant governor is Winsome Sears.  Born in Jamaica, Sears becomes the first black female Republican, first female veteran, and the first naturalized citizen, to serve.  Eat your hearts out, diverse Democrats. 

The new attorney general will be Jason S. Miyares, the first Latino to have the job.  Those Republicans, so in love with equality.

Another race to watch, still not declared, is the contest for governor of New Jersey.  The incumbent Democrat, Phil Murphy, was supposed to glide to easy re-election.  Instead, he's in the fight of his life against Republican Jack Ciattarelli.  The counting is still going on.   Should Jack win, that would be two upsets in governors' races in the same year, a warning to the Democratic Party that it doesn't have ownership over part of the population.

More later....

NOVEMBER 1,  2021

Urgent Agenda will be devoting almost all of its coverage in the next day to the important elections taking place around the country, especially the governor contests in Virginia and New Jersey, the mayoralty election in New York, and various propositions on ballots across the country that may have some national meaning.

As it stands now, the psychology that governs politics holds that what happens in these elections will have a profound effect on the results of next year's midterms and on the presidential election of 2024.  I agree.  Both parties are in disarray, with the Democrats reduced to a train wreck and the Republicans heavily guided by whether Donald Trump will run for president again.  Neither party boasts strong and broad leadership.  The Democrats have a weak presidential bench, and the Republicans have a better one, but, again, waiting on Trump.

The key indicator race is in Virginia.  Here is a state, once the seat of the Confederacy, that has drifted from solidly conservative to almost liberal.  Biden won Virginia by ten points.  Now there is political tumult in Mr. Jefferson's home state.  Out of nowhere comes a non-politician named Glenn Youngkin, a moderate conservative who has made educational decay the theme of his campaign...and he is running neck and neck with former Governor Terry McAuliffe, who is well-known throughout the state.  If Youngkin can pull off an upset victory, it will be a political earthquake, a message to the Democrats that no state is safe, and that the ultra-liberal policies of Joe Biden are electoral losers.  If Youngkin wins, look for open civil warfare among the Democrats.  In Virginia, a star will be born, but the knives will be out.

When examining the Virginia results, be sure to observe how well Democrat McAuliffe does among traditionally Democratic interest groups – the blacks, the Hispanics, suburban women, Asian-Americans.  There are signs that loyalty to the Democratic Party among the members of these groups is cracking.  Voters are starting to think for themselves.  We'll see if such rebellious behavior actually shows up, or if Virginians return to their longtime roots.

Also, if the election is close, but leaning Youngkin, look for attempts by the Democrats to challenge the outcome.  They're very good at this, suddenly discovering that there are 150,000 missing absentee ballots. Where could they be?

The other races are less significant than the one in Virginia.  While some Republicans claim that the governor race in Democratic New Jersey is tightening, I'd have to see more to accept that analysis.  Democratic Governor Phil Murphy will probably get another term, but Republican challenger Jack Ciattarell is moving up in the polls...with zero days to go until the election.

The election for mayor of New York City will probably be a coronation.  Eric Adams, a former police officer and today president of the borough of Brooklyn, is the Democratic candidate in a city with a seven to one Democratic registration advantage.  The key point here is that Adams is a moderate Democrat, no member of the lunatic fringe.  He says he's the future of the Democratic Party, and he may well be.

We await real numbers.

November 1, 2021        Permalink